We are now in what some people call the Crime Control Era. Over the past several

Question

We are now in what some people call the Crime Control Era. Over the past several years, on average, arrests have gone up, prison populations have increased and crime has gone down. This doesn’t hold perfectly year to year but over an average of a few years it does. Does this mean that mass incarceration is the answer to crime control? Research this topic and provide statistics and analysis to show a clear picture of what is actually happening.

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Explanation / Answer

An increase in incarceration does not always lead to a decrease in crime. The incarceration rate of the United States of America was the highest in the world, at 716 per 100,000 of the national population. Alone US houses around 22 percent of the world's prisoners. Crime and imprisonment are linked.

Most prison sentences in the United States are for more than one year. Thus, even if crime goes down, and the number of new incarcerations goes down, the total prison population can still increase because most of those incarcerated in previous years are still behind bars. Suppose 50 crimes are committed in a given year and all 50 are arrested, convicted, and sentenced to three years in prison (with no parole). Now, suppose in the next year the crime rate drops tenfold and only 10 crimes are committed, with all 10 perpetrators arrested, convicted, and sentenced to three years. Because the 50 individuals sentenced last year are still behind bars for another two years, the 10 new convictions will bring the total up to 550. Even though crime went down dramatically, the prison population grew because more people entered prison than were released.

If the crime rate influences the incarceration rate, when more crimes are committed, the prison population should increase even more; we will observe a larger change in the incarceration rate. If the crime rate goes down, the incarceration rate can still increase, because many of those in prison are still serving long sentences — but the increase should be much less because there are fewer new incarcerations.

Politicians passed mandatory sentences for many minor crimes that previously only resulted in fines or probation. These same politicians also lengthened sentences for major crimes. Changes in how we punish lawbreakers are the primary reason the overall incarceration rate increased while the crime rate decreased.

On a societal level it is a challenge to figure out the relationship between crime and incarceration rate.

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