Please answer Problem 2- A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H ection 61 Operations and Supply Chatli

Question

Please answer Problem 2- A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H

ection 61 Operations and Supply Chatli 50 points) As you can see in the following table, demand for h at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past ar d for heart transp teadily in theaw 2. (50 points) Demand for heart transplant at 45 50 52 56 58 Year 3 4 ear 1 would be 4 The director of medical services predicted 6 year ago that demand in year I w surgeries. years 4, 5, and6 (a) (4 points) Use a 3-year moving average to forecast demand in ye Please also calculate the MAD. (b) (6 points) Use a 3-year weighted moving average with weights of 0.1, 0.3, an 0.6, using 0.6 for the most recent year to forecast demand in years 4, 5 Please also calculate the MAD (c) (1I points) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.6 to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. Please also calculate the MAD. d) (11 points) Use exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of 0.9 to develop forecasts for years 2 through 6. Please also calculate the MAD. (e) (3 points) With MAD as the criterion, which of the four forecasting methods is best? Note: For calculating MAD in ES(0.6) &ES;(0.9), error in the year 1 should be included. They have five errors for years 1 through 5. Year Demand for heart transplant sur 45 50 52 56 58 MA(3) ERRORI

Explanation / Answer

A.

B

C

D.

E.

With the MAD , as the MAD for weighted MA for 3 year is lowest, it is the best.

Ans A Year Demand 3 yrMA AD 1 45 2 60 3 52 4 56 52.33333 3.666667 5 58 56 2 6 55.33333 2.833333 MAD

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