Q.2 a) Why exponential smoothening method is better than moving average method o

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Q.2 a) Why exponential smoothening method is better than moving average method of forecasting? b) How regression method of forecasting works and how it is different than other forecasting method? c) Why in the real life you should mix qualitative and quantitative forecasting for planning purpose? Q.3 What do you understand by an organization? Investigate the following two situations. First Situation: If you are working for a company where 200 people are working then is it organization? If yes then why and if not then why not? Second Situation: You are flying in a plane from Doha to Singapore, with 200 passengers and you are one of them, in this situation will you be considered in an organization or not? If yes then why and if not then why no Q.5 A study by the Engineering Manpower Commission indicated that as many as 82% of all engineers have some form of engineering management responsibility. Some of the examples of Engineering Manager Position are listed below: Technical Director/Director Engineering Manager Projects Engineer Maintenance Manager Section Engineer .Senior Engineer Chief Engineer General Manager From the list above or otherwise, select any one engineering position that you are interested in and discuss: (a) The expected qualifications required in order to qualify for this role (b) What you expect to be the your roles as an Engineering Manager in an organization Answering All Questions Quality of Answers (4 Format & Readability (3) Reference (1) Excellent clarity and readability All answers are correct, original, Hand writing is clear and legible. All answers are provided, reative, showing your depth of no question points missed Headings are used appropriately are understanding, relevant to the References are correctly Sentences flow smoothly with no cited in each answer Spelling Mistakes. Tables, figures are effectively used. question asked, focused and

Explanation / Answer

Ans 2 (a) The simple moving average method assigns equal weightage to all past observatons that are counted, whereas the exponential smoothening method assigns different weightage to observations, giving highest value to the most recent one. This value keeps on decreasing for older ones.

(b) Regression methods of forecasting works on the assumption that it is possible to identify underlying factors that might influence a variable which is being forecast. It is a group of methods that can be used to predict the future value of a variable using information from other variables and finding a relationship between them. Other traditional methods take into account the observation of data over a time period to predict the future trends, assuming that the patterns of variation will remain the same.

(c) The real life is not simply a statistical event, nor it is purely qualitative in nature. To predict the future in real life situations, many factors, both qualitative and quantitative have to be incorporated into the process of forecasting the future. For example, while predicting the sales of travel packages to Kashmir in India, besides seasonal patterns of past five years, we must also take into account the general law and order situation, safety measures in the wake of recent developments, huge rebate given by tour operators, better air connectivity and so on.

Ans 3

An organization is defined as a social unit of the people that is structured and managed to fulfil a purpose and to pursue a collective goal. These units have a management structure and have pre defined relationship between the members who work together to achieve a common goal.

Case I - The unit is an organization because the company is driven by a mission and vision and all 200 employees are collectively working to achieve the vision and mission objectives for the company.

Case II - The secod case is not an organization because the passengers have different goals to achieve by flying to their destination and they are not related to one another or governed by a management to achieve a common objective.

Ans 5- The role chosen is Maintenance Manager.

(a) Holder of this position should be a graduate in relevant technical discipline. He should preferably have a post graduate qualification in Management. Additionally he must have sufficient work experience ( Over 5 years) in the capacity of a Maintenance Engineer in the same field.

(b) An Engineering Manager is responsible for managing the technical operations of the unit. He may be required to manage one or more functions in the unit like sourcing, production, maintenance, supply chain management, logistics, quality control, Technical services, utilities, troubleshooting to name a few. He must know the technical aspects of the process and make sure that he applies his skills to obtain competitive advantage through higher productivity and better quality and customer service. He should also be a good people manager to be successful in this role, because the work needs supervision of a number of subordinates, and getting the best out of every person. He should also be a problem solver who resolves critical issues with ease. He should be able to see the big picture and contribute to full, what is in the interest of the company.

Ref. to Q 2 - https://hbr.org/1971/07/how-to-choose-the-right-forecasting-technique

Q 3 - None.

Q5 - None  

  

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