12. valuer .00 points PA 15-4 A police station had to deploy a police officer. A

ID: 371160 • Letter: 1

Question

12. valuer .00 points PA 15-4 A police station had to deploy a police officer. A police station had to deploy a police officer for an emergency multiple times in the last four evenings. The table below shows the number of emergencies each evening. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) Forecast for tomorrow (calls) Weekday Number of calls each day 10 Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday 7 2 7 Complete the "Forecast for tomorrow" column in the table above. Use an exponential smoothing a. forecasting approach, with a-0.2 and a forecast for Monday of 10. Round your answer to 3 decimal places.) What would be their forecast for Friday using the same exponential smoothing forecasting approach?

Explanation / Answer

Let the formula for simple exponential smoothing be :

Ft = alpha x At-1 + ( 1 – alpha ) x Ft-1

Where,

Ft = Forecast for period t

At-1 = Actual number of calls for period t-1

Ft-1 = Forecast for period t-1

Alpha = Exponential smoothing constant = 0.2

Therefore ,

Ft = 0.2 x At-1 + 0.8 x Ft-1

Using above formula and using forecast for Monday = 7 , the forecast values are presented below:

WEEKDAY

NUMBER OF CALLS EACH DAY

FORECAST FOR TOMORROW

MONDAY

TUESDAY

0.2 X7 + 0.8X10 = 1.4 + 8 =9.4

WEDNESDAY

0.2 X 2 + 0.8 X 9.4 = 0.4 + 7.52= 7.92

THURSDAY

0.2 X 7 + 0.8 X 7.92 = 1.4 + 6.336= 7.736

FRIDAY

0.2 X 11 + 0.8 X 7.736 = 2.2 + 6.188=8.388