A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility.

Question

A General Manger of Harley-Davidson has to decide on the size of a new facility. The GM has narrowed the choices to two: large facility or small facility. The company has collected information on the payoffs. It now has to decide which option is the best using probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value.

Options:

Determination of chance probability and respective payoffs:

Determination of Expected Value of each alternative
Build Small: $16+$33=$49
Build Large: $20+$42=$62

Facility Demand Options Probability Actions Expected Payoffs Large Low Demand 0.4 Do Nothing ($10) Low Demand 0.4 Reduce Prices $50 High Demand 0.6 $70 Small Low Demand 0.4 $40 High Demand 0.6 Do Nothing $40 High Demand 0.6 Overtime $50 High Demand 0.6 Expand $55

Explanation / Answer

Based on the analysis of probability analysis, the decision tree model, and expected monetary value I feel Harley-Davidson should build a large facility.
Reasons :

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