At-n )/n Fe = (At-1 + Atat Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1-Ft-1) Problem 5 (Questions 31-35) 5
ID: 382041 • Letter: A
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At-n )/n Fe = (At-1 + Atat Ft = Ft-1 + (At-1-Ft-1) Problem 5 (Questions 31-35) 5055 IwMA(te) l | I wMA(0.3,0.7) | | | MAS) ES1 $09 ES(0.6) Week | Sales 120 135 SMA(2) 120 120 129 126.6 2 127.5 130 124.5 132 4 160 MAD a) 142.5; b) 137.5; c) 132.5; d) 127.5 a) 122.5; b) 129.5; c) 132.5; d) 135.5 a) 137.28; b) 132.72; c) 146.64; d) 132.24 1. What is the Forecast for week 5 using SMA? What is the forecast for week 5 using WMA? 3. What is the forecast for week 5 using ES? 4. What is the absolute deviation of SMA on week 4 S. Which of the three methods would you use to forecast based on MAD? 2. a) 20; b) 15; c) 30; d) 37.5 a) SMA; b) WMA; c) ESExplanation / Answer
1) SMA = (Week 3 + Week 4)/2 = (125+160)/2 = 142.5. Hence a
2) WMA = 0.3*Week 4 + 0.7*Week 3 = 0.3*160 + 0.7*125 = 135.5. Hence d
3) ES = Forecast + alpha*(Actual - Forecast)
So, to determine alpha, Week 3 Forecast = 129, Week 2 forecast = 120, Week 2 actual = 135
So, 129 = 120 + alpha*(135-120)
alpha = 9/15 = 0.6
Hence, Week 5 forecast = 126.6 + 0.6*(160-126.6) = 146.64. Hence c
4) Deviation for SMA of week 4 = Actual - Forecast = 160-130 = 30. Hence c
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