The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus H
ID: 387439 • Letter: T
Question
The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks:
a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 useding a 3-Week moving average= ______ Pints ( round your response to two decimal places)
b) Using a 3 week weighted moving average, weith weights of 0.20, 0.35,and 0.45, using 0.45 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of october 12= _______ pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in apporopriate order the largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period)
c) if forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 345 and standard deviation is .30 , using exponential smoothing, develop the forecast for each of the weeks with the known demand and the forecast for the the weeks of October 12
Week of Pints Used August 31 345 September 7 389 September 14 412 September 21 383 September 28 366 October 5 378Explanation / Answer
A.
3 week MA forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = (383+366+378)/3
3 week MA forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = 375.67
B.
3 week WMA forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = .45*378 +.35*366+ .2*383
3 week WMA forecasted demand for the week of October 12 = 374.80
C.
Exponential forecast with alpha = .3 is as follows.
Week of
Pints used
forecast for this date
August 31
345
345
September 7
389
(345-345)*.3 + 345 = 345
September 14
412
(389-345)*.3 + 345 = 358.2
September 21
383
(412-358.2)*.3 + 358.2 = 374.34
September 28
366
(383-374.34)*.3 + 374.34= 376.94
October 5
378
(366-376.94)*.3 + 376.94 = 373.66
October 12
-
(378-373.66)*.3 + 373.66 = 374.96
Week of
Pints used
forecast for this date
August 31
345
345
September 7
389
(345-345)*.3 + 345 = 345
September 14
412
(389-345)*.3 + 345 = 358.2
September 21
383
(412-358.2)*.3 + 358.2 = 374.34
September 28
366
(383-374.34)*.3 + 374.34= 376.94
October 5
378
(366-376.94)*.3 + 376.94 = 373.66
October 12
-
(378-373.66)*.3 + 373.66 = 374.96
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