1) The sales for six consecutive weeks for Bill\'s Blueberries are shown below.

ID: 389058 • Letter: 1

Question

1) The sales for six consecutive weeks for Bill's Blueberries are shown below. The units are in the number of “flats” sold.

Using a moving average of order k = 3, calculate the forecasted value of sales for time t = 4. Report your answer to the nearest whole number.

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2) The table below shows the actual closing daily stock prices for Umbrella Corporation for September 2 through September 5, 2008. Suppose the forecast for Sept. 2 is 81.88. Using SES (single exponential smoothing) and = 0.2, what would be the forecast value for September 3?

81.81

None of these.

81.55

81.86

e) 81.78

3) Actual sales for January through April are shown below.

Use exponential smoothing with = 0.2 to forecast sales for May from the above data. Assume the forecast for the initial period (January) is 18. Report your answer to two decimal places. Hint: you can use Excel and the Real Statistics add-in.

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Week Sales 1 16 2 18 3 14 4 10 5 29 6 22

Explanation / Answer

3-week moving average forecast for week 4 (t=4) = (16+18+14)/3 = 16

3-week moving average forecast for week 5 = (18+14+10)/3 = 14

3-week moving average forecast for week 6 = (14+10+29)/3 = 17.67 or 18

3-week moving average forecast for week 7 = (10+29+22)/3 = 20.33 or 20

Exponential smoothening data table is not given.

Time

Month

Sales

Forecast with = 0.2

January

February

March

April

19.20

May

Exponential smoothening forecast for May = (April sales – April forecast)*.2 + April forecast

Exponential smoothening forecast for May = (16-19.2)*.2 + 19.2

Exponential smoothening forecast for May =18.56