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A given project has an expected duration of 48 days. The project\'s standard dev

ID: 390305 • Letter: A

Question

A given project has an expected duration of 48 days. The project's standard deviation is 10 days. What is the likelihood of completing the project after day 43? The likelihood is %. ( Round the percentage to 2 decimals. Do not include the percentage sign.) A given project has an expected duration of 21 days. The project's standard deviation is 1.25 days. What is the likelihood of completing the project within 23 days? The likelihood is not include the percentage sign.) %, («Round the percentage to 2 decimals. Do

Explanation / Answer

Answer to 1st question :

Expected duration of the project = m = 48 days

Standard deviation of project duration = Sd = 10 days

Let the Z value corresponding to the probability ( likelihood ) of completing the project in 43 days = Z1

Accordingly ,

M + Z1 x Sd = 43

Or, 48 + 10xZ1 = 43

Or, 10.Z1 = - 5

Or, Z1 = - 0.5

Corresponding probability for Z = - 0.5 as derived from standard normal distribution table = 0.30854 ( or 30.85% rounded to 2 decimal place )

The likelihood is = 30.85%

Answer to 2nd question :

Expected duration of the project = m = 21 days

Standard deviation of project duration = Sd = 1.25 days

Let the Z value corresponding to the probability ( likelihood ) of completing the project in 23 days = Z2

Accordingly ,

M + Z2 x Sd = 23

Or, 21 + 1.25.Z2 = 23

Or, 1.25.Z2 = 2

Or, Z2 = 2/1.25

Or, Z2 = 1.6

Corresponding probability for Z = 1.6 as derived from standard normal distribution table = 0.9452 ( or 94.52%)

The likelihood is = 94.52%

The likelihood is = 30.85%

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