Which of the following forecasting a Exponential Smoothing with large b. Trend A

Question

Which of the following forecasting a Exponential Smoothing with large b. Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing with large and c Moving Averages with large n d. Moving Averages with small n. 2 Which of the following error measures indicates the direction of the error? a. Bias b. MAD C. MAPD d MSE 3. If you perform the Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing method and the results in the column labeled Ti are mo numbers, then the time series data has a. an upward trend b. a downward trend. C. no trend. d. a seasonal variation. Data for Problems 4-7. The Fastgro Fertilizer Company distributes fertilizer to various lawn and garden shops. The based its quarterly production by forecasting how many tons of fertilizer will be sold. The company has gathered the the past 4 quarters from its sales record and has been using the Exponential Smoothing with or 0.3 to produce the for Quarter Actual sale (tons) 800 750 Forecast 800 785 795.5 770 4. What is the sale forecast for the 5th quarter? a. 785.60 tons b. 787.85 tons c. 782.00 tons d. 790.80 tons 5. Calculate the MAD using only the 2ad to 4th quarter data? a. MAD 36.83 b. MAD- 35.33 c. MAD 43.33 d. MAD-38.67 6. Calculate the MAPD using only the 2nd to 4th quarter data? MAPD 5.55% b. MAPD 4.75% c. MAPD 4.97% d. MAPD 4.57% Spring 2018

Explanation / Answer

Ans 2 - The measure that indicates the direction of error is called bias. A is correct,

Ans 3 = Question is incomplete.

Ans 4 -

F5 = F4 + alpha ( A4-F4)

= 795.5 +0.3 ( 770-795.5)

= 787,85

B is correct,

5 MAD = absolute deviation values between the quarters 2 to 4 / no of quarters

= 50+35+25.5/3 = 36.83

A is correct

6. MAPD = 1/3 [50/750+35/820+25.5/770] x100

= 4.74 %

B is correct

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