The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus H

Question

The following table gives the number of pints of type A blood used at Damascus Hospital in the past 6 weeks: Week Of Pints Used August 31 September 7 September 14 September 21 September 28 October5 372 408 378 366 378 a) The forecasted demand for the week of October 12 using a 3-week moving average- pints (round your response to two decimal places) b) Using a 3-week weighted moving average, with weights of 0.20, 0.30, and 0.50, using 0.50 for the most recent week, the forecasted demand for the week of October 12pints (round your response to two decimal places and remember to use the weights in appropriate orderthe largest weight applies to most recent period and smallest weight applies to oldest period.) c) If the forecasted demand for the week of August 31 is 360 and = 0.25, using exponential smoothing, develop the forecast for each of the weeks with the known demand and the forecast for the week of October 12 (round your responses to two decimal places). Week Of Forecast for this Date 360 360.00 363.00 Pints Used 360 372 408 378 366 378 August 31 September 7 September 21 September 28 October 5 October 12

Explanation / Answer

Answer to question #a :

The forecasted demand for week of October 12 using 3 week moving average

= ( Demand for week of September 21 + Demand for week of September 28 + demand for week of October 5 ) /3

= ( 378 + 366 + 378 ) / 3

= 374

THE FORECASTED DEMAND FOR WEEK OF OCTOBER 12 = 374 PINTS

Answer to Question #b:

The forecasted demand for week of October 12 using 3 week weighted moving average

= (0.2x Demand for week of September 21 +0.3 x Demand for week of September 28 + 0.5 x demand for week of October 5 )

= ( 0.2 x 378 + 0.3 x 366 + 0.5 x 378 )

= 75.6 + 109.8 + 189

= 374.4 Gallons

THE FORECASTED DEMAND FOR WEEK OF OCTOBER 12 = 374.4

Answer to question # c :

Formula for Exponential smoothing as follows :

Ft = alpha x At-1 + ( 1 – alpha) x Ft-1

     = 0.25.At-1 + 0.75.Ft-1                               

Where,

alpha = Exponential smoothing constant = 0.25

Ft, Ft-1 = Forecast for period t and t-1 respectively

At-1 = Actual demand for period t-1

We will start our calculation from period September 21 and move progressively.

The preceeding data for September 21 is that of September 14 which has At-1 =408 and Ft-1 = 363

Week of

Pints use ( Actual demand)

Forecast

September 21

378

374.25

September 28

366

375.19

October 5

378

372.89

October 12

374.17

THE FORECASTED DEMAND FOR WEEK OF OCTOBER 12 = 374 PINTS

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