Suppose that Winegar is a cafe that serve several kind of breakfast and its sale

Question

Suppose that Winegar is a cafe that serve several kind of breakfast and its sales are largely dependent on the probability of rain. For example if the probability of rain goes down then sales goes up because people will go out more. Even though the business is doing well, the owner still struggle with 2 problems. Some day, she doesn't have enough ingredient on hand, other days she has way too much leftover food. In order to fix these issues, she collect data showing probability of rain from the local weather service to help with predicting sales better.

a) How can the owner make use of the rain forecast to improve forecast of total sales each day? What other change does the owner need to make to capitalize on that info?

Explanation / Answer

a)

1st part:

As she has collected data from the local weather services for knowing of the rain forecast so from the calculative prediction of undertaking better sales at the Winegar; she should estimate of the ingredients that will be utilized properly on each day. Based on the number of days of rain, she should buy little ingredients on the days in which rain can occur. On the others days, she should keep the supply of the ingredients stable to serve the people better in the cafe with the several breakfasts as if the rain goes lower the visitor's demand will also increase in the cafe.

2nd part:

The rain cannot be predicted at all the time nor the exact probability will match. The owner should be required to preserve a system to store the ingredients or food in the cafe when there remains a chance of high or low rain, no food should remain left over in the cafe. As sometimes rain is not defined or not predictable on the forecast, for the uncertainty purpose it is required to manage proper food preservation system in the cafe so that no wastage or loss occurs. The food is required to be stored with better hygiene so that it can be utilized further on several days on which no rain will be there in the forecast. For the safety risk measures, it requires to manage a food preservation system in the cafe so that if unfortunately, rain comes the sale will drop so in this situation preserving food and ingredients for another day is the better option to maintain the balance in the sale and wastage can also be stopped.

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