Historical demand for a product is: a. Using a weighted moving average with weig

Question

Historical demand for a product is:

a. Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.60 (June), 0.30 (May), and 0.10 (April), find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast            

b. Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast            

c. Using single exponential smoothing with ? = 0.30 and a June forecast = 11, find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast            

d. Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand data. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your intercept value to 1 decimal place and slope value to 2 decimal places.)

Y =   +   t

e. Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast            

DEMAND January 16 February 15 March 19 April 16 May 20 June 19

Explanation / Answer

a)

July forecast using weighted moving average = 0.6*19+0.3*20+0.1*16 = 19

b)

July forecast using simple moving average = (19+20+16)/3 = 18.3

c)

July forecast using exponential smoothing = 11 + 0.3*(19-11) = 13.4

d) By using intercept and slope functions in excel we get

Y = 14.8 + 0.77t

e) Forecast for July (t=7) = 14.8 + 0.77*7 = 20.2

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