Problem 1 Table 1 The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for sp
ID: 429462 • Letter: P
Question
Problem 1
Table 1
The manager of a pizza shop must forecast weekly demand for special pizzas so that he can order pizza shells weekly. Recent demand has been:
WEEK
No. Special Pizzas
1
30
2
45
3
33
4
36
5
35
6
40
1.1 Use the information from Table 1. Using a three-week simple moving average, what is the forecast for week 7?
Problem 2
Use the information from Table 1.
2.1 If a three-week weighted moving average were used, what would be the forecast for week 7? (The weights are 0.60, 0.30, and 0.10 with 0.60 applied to the most recent period and 0.10 applied to the oldest period.)
Problem 3
Use the information from Table 1.
3.1 What is the exponentially smoothed forecast for week #7 if = 0.9 is used, and the forecast for week #6 was 34?
Show complete work
WEEK
No. Special Pizzas
1
30
2
45
3
33
4
36
5
35
6
40
Explanation / Answer
1.1 - 3 week simple moving average
Forecats for week 7 is the moving average for week 6 = 37.
2. Weighted moving average:
For calulating the moving average of 1st three weeks - weight*number of pizzas. for week 3 = 0.60*33+0.30*45+0.10*30 = 36.3. moving average = total/sum of weights = 36.3/1 = 36.3
Forecast for week 7 = moving average of week 6 = 38.10
3. exponentially smoothed forecast:
formula: m1 = y1. m2 = alpha*y(t)+(1-alpha)*m(t-1)
<
39.50805
Thus forecast for week 7 = 39.50
Week Number of pizzas 3 week moving total 3 week moving avarege (total/3) 1 30 2 45 3 33 108 36.00 4 36 114 38.00 5 35 104 34.67 6 40 111 37.00Related Questions
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