A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequential

Question

A project has four activities (A, B, C, and D) that must be performed sequentially. The probability distributions for the time required to complete each of the activities are as follows:

Provide the base-case, worst-case, and best-case calculations for the time to complete the project.

Use the random numbers 0.38, 0.1485, 0.7198 and 0.6165 to simulate the completion time of the project in weeks.

Activity Activity Time
(weeks)
Probability A 6 0.30 7 0.39 8 0.25 9 0.06 B 7 0.16 9 0.55 11 0.29 C 9 0.09 11 0.21 13 0.42 15 0.23 17 0.05 D 9 0.60 11 0.40

Explanation / Answer

In base case, we calculate the expected value which would be the summation of probability times activity time.

For example, For A, it would be (6*0.3 + 7*0.39 + 8*0.25 + 9*0.06)

Using the above logic, filling the table

Activity Base Case Worst Case Best Case A 7.07 9 6 B 9.26 11 7 C 12.88 17 9 D 9.8 11 9 Total 39.01 48 31

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