1. The historical demand for the Panasonic Model 205 Pencil Sharpener in units i
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Question
1. The historical demand for the Panasonic Model 205 Pencil Sharpener in units is: January, 65; February, 70; March, 80; April, 85; and May, 92, June 84. Using a three-month moving average, what is the forecast for July? If July experienced a demand of 96, what is the forecast for August?
b. 86.00 to 87.00; 89.00 to 91.00
2. In problem 1, suppose that the forecast for January was 75. Using single exponential smoothing with = 0.2, compute the exponential smoothing forecast for February through June. What is the Forecast demand for June?
a. 73.00 to 74.00
b. 75.00 to 76.00
c. 77.00 to 78.00
d. 79.00 to 80.00
Explanation / Answer
Ans
Using a three-month moving average, what is the forecast for July?
Forecast for July will be 87
If July experienced a demand of 96 ,
Forecast of August will be 91
Ans 2
Month
Demand
Exponential Smoothing
(alpha = 0.2)
1
75
2
70
74
0.2*70+0.8*75 =
74
3
80
75.2
0.2*80+0.8*74 =
75.2
4
85
77.16
0.2*85+0.8*75.2 =
77.6
5
92
80.12
0.2*92+0.8*77.16 =
80.12
6
84
80.89
0.2*84+0.8*80.12 = 80.89
7
96
73.91
0.2*96+0.8*80.89 =73.91
So the forecast Demand for June
73.00 to 74.00
Month
Demand
Exponential Smoothing
(alpha = 0.2)
1
75
2
70
74
0.2*70+0.8*75 =
74
3
80
75.2
0.2*80+0.8*74 =
75.2
4
85
77.16
0.2*85+0.8*75.2 =
77.6
5
92
80.12
0.2*92+0.8*77.16 =
80.12
6
84
80.89
0.2*84+0.8*80.12 = 80.89
7
96
73.91
0.2*96+0.8*80.89 =73.91
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