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Question 2 As computer models improve and computing power increases, we are appr

ID: 447110 • Letter: Q

Question

Question 2

As computer models improve and computing power increases, we are approaching the ability to generate perfect forecasts.

Question 2 options:

Question 3

The time horizon is determined by the forecasting method (naïve, linear, etc.).

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Question 4

Forecasts should be monitored for variations to improve the technique if possible.

Question 4 options:

Question 5

This sophisticated forecasting method uses a factor to adjust the speed of variation within the forecast.

Question 5 options:

exponential smoothing

weighted moving average

moving average

time horizon average

weighted average

True False

Explanation / Answer

Q2. The perfect forecast can be generated if we have infinite computing power. otherwise our models will always have error/noise which reduces with increasing computing power. Since computing power is inversely proportional to error valu. The answer is True. We are approaching the perfection with better computing power.

Q3. The answer is True. The forecasting method is based on past data. Now the forecasting method decides how much data points in past has to be considered for forecasting. Naive method consideres on one data point from past. Moving average considered multiple points depending on our requirement( it can be 3 day MA, 5 day MA etc) and linear method uses all the data points we have in the past to find trending equation.

Q4. The forecast should be monitored for variations to improve technique. Many times 3-day MA gives better forecasting than linear trends where there is sudden variation from day to day. Also expontential smoothening is used to have better forecasts and reduce variations. Hence, the option is True

Q5. Exponential smoothening uses a factor to adjust the speed of variation within the forecast.

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