Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completi

Question

Using PERT, Adam Munson was able to determine that the expected project completion time for the construction of a pleasure yacht is 24 months, and the project variance is 9. a) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 17 months? b) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 20 months? c) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 23 months? d) What is the probability that the project will be completed in 25 months? e) What is the due date that yields a 95% chance of completion?

Explanation / Answer

(b) probability of completing in 20 months = NORMDIST(20,24,3) = 9.1%

(c) probability of completing in 20 months = NORMDIST(23,24,3) = 36.9%

(d) probability of completing in 20 months = NORMDIST(25,24,3) = 63.1%

(e) Due date that yields 95% chance = NORMINV(0.95,24,3) = 28.9 weeks

Expected Completion Time = 24.0 months Expected variance (v) = 9.0 months Standard Deviation = v = 3.0 months Probability that the project will be completed in specified time Given Time (x) = 17.0 months Calculate z score as below z score = x - µ = (17 - 24) = -2.33 3.0 See the probablity from the standard normal table corresponding to z score (or using excel formula NORMDIST) (a) Probability (X<=x) 1.0% Answer

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