National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a s
ID: 460586 • Letter: N
Question
National Scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows: Forecast September sales volume using each of the following: A linear trend equation.(Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to 2 decimal places.) A five-month moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 17 (000). (Round your intermediate forecast values and final answer to 2 decimal places) The naive approach. A weighted average using .50 for August, .20 for July, and .30 for June. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)Explanation / Answer
b.
5.
As per the weighted average method
Month
Sales (000, units)
Forecast sales (000, units)
Feb.
16
March
17
April
13
May
22
June
17
July
25
Aug.
27
Sep.
(.5*27 + .2*25 + .3*17) = 23.60
4.
As per the naïve method,
As per this method, forecasted sales of September = Actual sales of Previous month August
Thus,
Forecasted sales of September = 27 (000, units)
3.
Exponential moving average (EMA) = (Closing sales – EMA of previous day)*multiplier + EMA of previous day
Multiplier = .2 EMA of March = 17 (000, units)
Month
Sales (000, units)
EMA Forecast sales (000, units)
Feb.
16
March
17
17
April
13
(17 - 17)*.2 + 17 = 17
May
22
(13-17)*.2 + 17 = 16.2
June
17
(22 - 16.2)*.2 + 16.2 = 17.36
July
25
(17 - 17.36)*.2 + 17.36 = 17.29
Aug.
27
(25 - 17.29)*.2 + 17.29 = 18.83
Sep.
(27 - 18.83)*.2+18.83 = 20.46
2. as per 5 day moving average method:
Month
Sales (000, units)
Forecast sales (000, units)
Feb.
16
March
17
April
13
May
22
June
17
July
25
Aug.
27
Sep.
(13+22+17+25+27)/5 = 20.8
Month
Sales (000, units)
Forecast sales (000, units)
Feb.
16
March
17
April
13
May
22
June
17
July
25
Aug.
27
Sep.
(.5*27 + .2*25 + .3*17) = 23.60
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