A partial results from a PERT analysis for a project with 50 activities shows th

Question

A partial results from a PERT analysis for a project with 50 activities shows that path B-M-Q is The expected duration and standard deviation of the related activities are Activity B 75.1313 days 6.0675 days. Activity M, 87, 121 days 0.2539 days. Activity Q, 26, 2669 days. 6.7901 days. You may assume normal distribution and activities are independent to answer the questions below The probability that the project will be completed in 196 days or less is If the due date of the project is 255 days the probability that the project will be late is Use at least 4 demands in your calculation and answers.

Explanation / Answer

Probability of the project to be completed in 196 days is -

Standard deviation of all the three activities (B-M-Q) are = 6.0675 + 9.2539 + 6.7901 = 22.1115

Expected duration of all the three activities (B-M-Q) are = 75.1313 + 87.121 + 26.2669 = 188.5192

Z = (D - te)/ St

Where,

D = 196, te = 188.5192, St = 22.1115

Z = (196 - 188.5192) / 22.1115

= 0.33832

The probability of the project to be completed in 196 days or less is 0.33832

Activity Expected Duration (Days) Standard deviation (Days) B 75.1313 6.0675 M 87.121 9.2539 Q 26.2669 6.7901

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