3.22 The probability of having a specified return period, Tr, is defined as P(an

Question

3.22 The probability of having a specified return period, Tr, is defined as

P(annual value will be equaled or exceeded exactly once in a period of t = Tr years)
=

Also,

P(annual value will be equaled or exceeded exactly r times in a period of n years)
=

a) According to the description in parentheses, the second probability should equal the first when n and r are equal to what values?
b) Show that both equations result in the same probability for an annual value whose frequency is 33 1/3 % and the return period is Tr = t = 3 years. Discuss.

Explanation / Answer

a) r = 1 and n = t b) frequency = r/n (times per year). frequency = 33.3333% or 1/3. Therefore, r = 1, n = 3, which is equivalent to the first statement of "exactly once in a period of t = 3 years"

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