8. Kaya Identity. Year 1960 2014 Pop. (mil.) 180 318 Y/P ($) 17,036 50,782 E/Y (

Question

8. Kaya Identity.

Year 1960 2014

Pop. (mil.) 180 318

Y/P ($) 17,036 50,782

E/Y (kg oil per $) 0.331
0.137

M/E(kg CO2 per kg oil) 2.836
2.371

For each component of the Kaya Identity, use the formula for annual growth rates to compute average annual growth.

a) Use the Kaya identity to estimate the annual percent growth in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions between 1960 and 2014.

b) Of the source of emissions growth, which placed the greatest downward pres- sure on emissions? Which placed the largest upward pressure on emissions?

c) What would have been the change in annual emissions if real GDP per capita had remained constant? What would have been the downside of this situation?

Explanation / Answer

a) Use the Kaya identity to estimate the annual percent growth in U.S. carbon dioxide emissions between 1960 and 2014.

Find the annual growth rate using the formula: F = P (1 + r%)^n. Here n = (2014 - 1960) = 54 years

0.137 = 0.331(1+r%)^1/54

This gives r = -1.62%

b) Of the source of emissions growth, which placed the greatest downward pres- sure on emissions? Which placed the largest upward pressure on emissions?

The growth of emissions was appreciated by growth of GDP and the donward pressure is imposed by Population

c) What would have been the change in annual emissions if real GDP per capita had remained constant? What would have been the downside of this situation?

Annual emissions are a function of GDP so there would have been no change. However, this would implied that population and GDP are growing at the same rate so annual emissions would have not fallen.

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