Question 5: Read the current El Nino Forecast or type http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.g
ID: 117192 • Letter: Q
Question
Question 5: Read the current El Nino Forecast or type
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf
A. Name the 2 groups of models (2 groups on the right– squares/diamonds & empty circles in
key) used in forecasting ENSO. How many of each model type were used in each group to
predict El Nino conditions in Mid-February 2017 plume(fig. 6) . Hint- Use the key on the right
hand side of the figure.
B. Why is best to use several groups and types of models in forecasting for el Nino/ La Nina?
C. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/enso.shtml#composite
Determine the current condition in the eastern Pacific Ocean? Watch the animation under
current condition. Does the temperature in comparison to the mean (white color) appear
more blue or appear more orange? Does this indicate cooler than average sea surface
temperature (SST) water or warmer near the equator?
D. Scroll down to the expert discussion/assessment. Click on the pdf file and read. What can
we expect to occur based on analysis by the Climate Prediction Center and its models used
to forecast El Nino for the next several months? (2-3 sentences)
Explanation / Answer
A. The two groups are Dynamic models and Statistical models. There are 18 dynamic models and 6 statistical models.
B. The forecasting of El Nino and La nina uses many forecasting models because the combination of these models (spaghetti models) would give an average estimate of the actual forecast which can be more reliabe.
C. In the eastern pacific ocean, the mean temperature appear more orange. This indicates warmer temperature near the equator.
D. The models created by the center states that El Nino is almost over (El Nino neutral) since the sea surface temperature is near to average and there is high possibility of La Nina to persist in the upcoming months.
Related Questions
drjack9650@gmail.com
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.