A rare disease affects 1 in 10,000 individuals in the population. A blood test f
ID: 1845905 • Letter: A
Question
A rare disease affects 1 in 10,000 individuals in the population. A blood test for the disease is positive for 95% of people with the disease. However, 0.4% of people without the disease will also test positive.
(a) What is the likelihood that a person, selected at random from the population, has the rare disease and tests positive for it?
(b) What is the likelihood that a person, selected at random from the population, does NOT have the rare disease and tests positive for it?
(c) Given that a person (selected at random from the general population) tests positive, what is the probability that she has the disease?
(d) Now assume that the doctor knows that 1 in 100 individuals with symptom G will have the rare disease, and he only orders the test when individuals have symptom G. Given that one of the doctor
Explanation / Answer
a.19 in 200,000
b. 4 in 100,000
c. 19/27
d. 95.5 %
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