3. There are 10 million people in New York City. One person contracts Small Pox,

Question

3. There are 10 million people in New York City. One person contracts Small Pox, and this person subseguently spread it to the restof the city that must occur in order to infect 10 million people. Assume that in each exchange, each a. Derive an equation that you can use to find the number of infectious exchanges infected person will infect 2 uninfected people (see diagram below). b. Assume that exchanges occur per day. Based on your answer from part a, how many days would it take to wipe out the city? c. Discuss why this scenario is unrealistic

Explanation / Answer

Ans.

a) Equation - N = N0 * 2n ,

where N = final population that gets infected i.e., 10 million, N0 = initial no. of person that contract smallpox i.e.,1 and n = no. of infectious exchnages.

so , 10,000,000 = 1 * 2n , so n = 23.25

no. of infectious exchnages = 23.25

b) as exchanges occur per day , it would take 23.25 days to wipe out the city.

c) this scenario is unrealistic as worldwide immunization program eradicated smallpox disease decades ago, so even if some person contracts smallpox it will not spread this quickly.

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