The Federal Election Commission maintains data showing the voting age population
ID: 2453322 • Letter: T
Question
The Federal Election Commission maintains data showing the voting age population, the number of registered voters, and the turnout for federal elections. The following table shows the national voter turnout as a percentage of the voting age population from 1972 to 1996 (The Wall Street Journal Almanac, 1998).
Voter Turnout
Year
% Turnout
Year
% Turnout
1972
55
1986
36
1974
38
1988
50
1976
54
1990
37
1978
37
1992
55
1980
53
1994
39
1982
40
1996
49
1984
53
Part (a): Use exponential smoothing to forecast this time series. Consider smoothing constants of a = 0.1 and 0.2. What is the forecast of the percentage of turnout in 1998?
Part (b): Use the mean absolute deviation (MAD) to determine which smoothing constant provides the best forecast of voter turnout.
Voter Turnout
Year
% Turnout
Year
% Turnout
1972
55
1986
36
1974
38
1988
50
1976
54
1990
37
1978
37
1992
55
1980
53
1994
39
1982
40
1996
49
1984
53
Explanation / Answer
The best forecast comes by using 0.1 as a constant because the MAD is lesser.
Year Turnout Constant Forecast Deviation Constant Forecast Deviation 1972 55 0.1 55 0 0.2 55 0 1974 38 55 17.00 55 17 1976 54 53.30 0.70 51.6 2.4 1978 37 53.37 16.37 52.08 15.08 1980 53 51.73 1.27 49.06 3.94 1982 40 51.86 11.86 49.85 9.85 1984 53 50.67 2.33 47.88 5.12 1986 36 50.91 14.91 48.90 12.90 1988 50 49.42 0.58 46.32 3.68 1990 37 49.47 12.47 47.06 10.06 1992 55 48.23 6.77 45.05 9.95 1994 39 48.90 9.90 47.04 8.04 1996 49 47.91 1.09 45.43 3.57 1998 48.02 46.14 MAD 7.94 8.47Related Questions
drjack9650@gmail.com
Navigate
Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.