Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in Table 17.1 of the Text Book (12t

Question

Refer to the gasoline sales time series data in Table 17.1 of the Text Book (12th Edition). (Use Excel for this problem. Copy paste Excel Tables into your report for answering questions).

a) Compute two- week, three-week, and four- week moving average forecasts for the time series data.

b) Compute Measures of Forecast Accuracy like MAE, MSE, and MAPE.

c) Which method of forecasting of the three (two, three, or four- week moving average

models) would you prefer to use for future forecasting purposes? Justify your answer.

Week Sales (1000s of gallons) 1 17 2 21 3 19 4 23 5 18 6 16 7 20 8 18 9 22 10 20 11 15 12 22

Explanation / Answer

Four week moving average will bes selected based on the different parameters.   lower is the MAE, MSE and MAPE, Accurate is the method of forecasting.

Week Sales Forecast (2 week) Forecast Error = Actual - forecast Abs(Forecast Error) Cumulative Abs(Forecast Error) MAD = (Cumulative Absolute value of forecast error / n) cumulative forecast error TS = (Cumulative of forecast error / MAD) RSFE =cumulative of forecast error Absolute percentage Error = (Absolute error / Actual)*100 cumulative absolute percentage error Mean absolute percentage error(MAPE) = (Cumulative absolute percentage error / n) 1 17 2 21 3 19 19 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 4 23 20 3.00 3.00 3.00 0.75 3.00 4.00 3.00 13.04% 13.04% 4.35% 5 18 21 -3.00 3.00 6.00 1.20 0.00 0.00 0.00 16.67% 29.71% 9.90% 6 16 20.5 -4.50 4.50 10.50 1.75 -4.50 -2.57 -4.50 28.13% 57.84% 19.28% 7 20 17 3.00 3.00 13.50 1.93 -1.50 -0.78 -1.50 15.00% 72.84% 24.28% 8 18 18 0.00 0.00 13.50 1.69 -1.50 -0.89 -1.50 0.00% 72.84% 24.28% 9 22 19 3.00 3.00 16.50 1.83 1.50 0.82 1.50 13.64% 86.47% 28.82% 10 20 20 0.00 0.00 16.50 1.65 1.50 0.91 1.50 0.00% 86.47% 28.82% 11 15 21 -6.00 6.00 22.50 2.05 -4.50 -2.20 -4.50 40.00% 126.47% 42.16% 12 22 17.5 4.50 4.50 27.00 2.25 0.00 0.00 0.00 20.45% 146.93% 48.98% 13 18.5

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