An auto manufacturer is considering adding new automation to their assembly line
ID: 2763819 • Letter: A
Question
An auto manufacturer is considering adding new automation to their assembly line to reduce production costs. The manufacturer is confident that capital costs to get the new equipment "in service" will be $5,000,000, with a salvage value of $60,000 after a 9 year useful life. The manufacturer is less confident about the annual savings that will occur as a result of automation and cannot accurately assess the probability of the various outcomes. The manufacturer estimates the annual savings will be in the range of: Pessimistic $500,000
Most likely $670,000
Optimistic $820,000
Using an MARR of 12%, and the Beta distribution, determine the mean NPW for the investment. Express your answer in $ to the nearest $1,000
Explanation / Answer
Scenario Cash Inflow Optimistic $820,000.00 Pessimistic $500,000.00 Most Likely $670,000.00 *Expected Cash Inflow = (Optimistic + 4 * Most LIkely + Pessimistic) / 6 = (820000 + 4*670000 + 500000)/6 = 4000000/6 = $666,666.67 Present Value of Operating Cash Inflows = 666,667.67 * Annuity Factor at 12% for 9 years = 666666.67 * 5.3282 = $3,552,166.53 Present Value of Salvage Value of Machine = 60000 * Discount Factor at 12% for 9 years = 60000 * 0.4039 = $24,232.99 Net Cash Inflows from Project = 3552166.53 + 24232.99 = $3,576,399.52 Initial Outflow = $5,000,000 NPV = 3576399.52 - 5000000 = -$1,423,600 = -$1424 (in thousands)
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