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Click here to read the eBook: Measuring Risk for Discrete Distributions Problem

ID: 2777794 • Letter: C

Question

Click here to read the eBook: Measuring Risk for Discrete Distributions

Problem 6-5
Expected Return: Discrete Distribution

A stock's return has the following distribution:

Calculate the stock's expected return. Round your answer to two decimal places.
%

Calculate the standard deviation. Round your answer to two decimal places.
%

Demand for the
Company's Products
Probability of This
Demand Occurring
Rate of Return if This
Demand Occurs (%)
Weak 0.1 -40% Below average 0.2 -9 Average 0.4 9 Above average 0.2 30 Strong 0.1 60 1.0

Explanation / Answer

Calculation of stock's expected return:

Demand

Probability

Rate of Return

Expected Return %

A

B

A*B

Weak

0.1

-40%

-4.00%

Below average

0.2

-9%

-1.80%

Average

0.4

9%

3.60%

Above average

0.2

30%

6.00%

Strong

0.1

60%

6.00%

Stock's expected return=

9.80%

Calculation of standard deviation:

Demand

Rate of Return

Expected Return

Deviation

Deviation ^2

Probability

D*E

A

B

C=A-B

D = C*C

E

Weak

-40%

9.80%

-49.80%

24.80%

0.1

2.48%

Below average

-9%

9.80%

-18.80%

3.53%

0.2

0.71%

Average

9%

9.80%

-0.80%

0.01%

0.4

0.00%

Above average

30%

9.80%

20.20%

4.08%

0.2

0.82%

Strong

60%

9.80%

50.20%

25.20%

0.1

2.52%

Variance

6.53%

Standard Deviation = Variance ^(1/2)

25.55%

Calculation of stock's expected return:

Demand

Probability

Rate of Return

Expected Return %

A

B

A*B

Weak

0.1

-40%

-4.00%

Below average

0.2

-9%

-1.80%

Average

0.4

9%

3.60%

Above average

0.2

30%

6.00%

Strong

0.1

60%

6.00%

Stock's expected return=

9.80%

Calculation of standard deviation:

Demand

Rate of Return

Expected Return

Deviation

Deviation ^2

Probability

D*E

A

B

C=A-B

D = C*C

E

Weak

-40%

9.80%

-49.80%

24.80%

0.1

2.48%

Below average

-9%

9.80%

-18.80%

3.53%

0.2

0.71%

Average

9%

9.80%

-0.80%

0.01%

0.4

0.00%

Above average

30%

9.80%

20.20%

4.08%

0.2

0.82%

Strong

60%

9.80%

50.20%

25.20%

0.1

2.52%

Variance

6.53%

Standard Deviation = Variance ^(1/2)

25.55%

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