Your first consulting job is to serve as a climate advisor for a reality show th

Question

Your first consulting job is to serve as a climate advisor for a reality show that will be filmed outdoors in two different remote locations, Kiribati and Brunei. There will be two episodes in each place, one that will require it to be raining, and the other when it must not be raining. Taking into account the characteristics and the predictability of the MJO and ENSO for each desired weather, for how far in advance for each location can you provide a forecast with a 75% confidence in your forecast? With a 90% confidence? Explain how you came to your decision.

Explanation / Answer

Heavy tropical rainfall is generally associated with the MJO shifts. This rainfall moves from the eastern Indian Ocean to the western tropical Pacific. This may cause heavy rains so by monitoring those events may helpful to predict about the rainfall. Modulation of tropical cyclone activity and shadow cloud activity also play a important role this context.

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