Now that we have learned something of the science behind global warming, it is t
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Question
Now that we have learned something of the science behind global warming, it is time to think about the limits of prediction. We know the world is heating up, that carbon, methane, and other greenhouse gases released by humans are the cause. But we do not know for sure the exact effects – some places hotter, some maybe colder; some wetter, some dryer. We have some basic ideas about it: in the short term at least dry areas get dryer, we areas probably get wetter (bad news for Austin – the kind of hot dry weather we have been experiencing during this drought cycle will probably become the norm around here, with its resulting damage to our water, our crops, and our health). The longer term (which is actually getting a lot closer – “long term” means by 2050 or so, and you are still going to be alive then, trying to figure out how to survive an maybe retire in the changed conditions) is less clear, but possibly much more scary.
Answer the prompts in short paragraphs like you did in previous assignments, and then spend some time thinking about and answering the application questions.
Model Worlds: What is the main problem in trying to model climate change? How do the examples of aerosols and global dimming illustrate our conundrum? Why does the author say that the only solution we have as of now is to start removing massive amounts of carbon and other greenhouse gasses from the atmosphere?
The Commitment and Approaching Extreme Danger: Using the information from Model Worlds and this chapter, explain what the author means when he says, on 169, that “its too late to avoid changing our world, but we still have time, if good policy is implemented, to avoid disaster”.
Leveling the Mountains: How Can They Keep on Moving, and Boiling the Abyss are all about the ways animal and plant species are being affected by global warming right now, and how the problems will increase as we get hotter. But if you read them with the right questions in mind, they say a lot about the problems humans will face too. Discuss how the changes we see going on now will not only make things very difficult for animals and plants, but for humans as well.
The Pack of Jokers: This chapter is probably the most important when we are talking about prediction, because we are pretty sure we know what will happen when these “tipping” points are reached, but now sure exactly how soon they will be reached. So, read through this chapter first, then discuss what we mean by “tipping” points. Very briefly, how would each of these “jokers” tip things into a really really bad state of affairs for humans?
Civilization: Out With a Whimper? is the most interesting forecast in the book, albeit, as the author acknowledges, informed speculation. But he does raise some harrowing ideas here. What is the main argument in this chapter, and what evidence does the author cite to suggest this end?
Application/Research 1: given what you have read in this assignment, what do you think are the main problems facing humans as we change our own world climate? Are some of these problems already causing changes in the country you are researching? If not, which ones will be the worst for that country?
Application 2: What do you think about the end of civilization argument? Scary? Possible? Improbable? Well, lets pretend it did happen – what would be the likely affect on humanity if it does?
Application 3: Say we refuse to change our own climate changing behaviors, that the worst happens, and the tipping points are are reached. Human civilization collapses. What then? Discuss whether this would be a good or bad or neutral thing in the larger picture of Gaia.
Explanation / Answer
MODEL WORLDS: One of the major challenges of our time is the climate change and this poses a serious threat considerably on our societies and also to the environment. The shifting weather patterns threaten food production, while the rising sea levels increases the risk of catastrophic flooding. In the last five years, climate scientists have made huge advances in their ability to track two major climate indicators namely the Arctic sea ice seasonal cycles and the ocean heat content. They are confident that the current models can also reproduce surface temperature increases. Lately, the accuracy of climate modelling has been questioned due to the apparent bump or pause in the increase of the surface temperatures globally since the last 15 years. Climatic changes are caused both naturally and due to anthropogenic reasons. But the one factor that plays the biggest role in the future climatic changes is our the amount of greenhouse-gases and aerosol emissions. To predict these the researchers in turn would be able to predict how we will be using the fossil fuels in the due course of time in our future but human behavior is impossible to predict with certainty. Another problem lies in the fact that capturing the effects of potentially lightning-fast changes in the environment is really difficult and challenging such as the melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, which, if melts completely would raise the seas to a frighteningly high level. These rapid changes are not well understood so they’re usually not well integrated into models. The problem is that climate models are designed to be stable and we would not want our simulation running off into an oblivion.The level of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is maintained by several processes, including photosynthesis, combustion and respiration. These processes form the Carbon cycle in which the proportion of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere approximately remains the same and if this balance is destroyed, it trigger in drastic climatic changes. The ever increasing human population has disturbed this cycle and is adding to atmospheric carbon dioxide in other ways and the amount of the greenhouse gases in our atmosphere has increasedl so drastically that to put back the atmosphere in a stable form we have to remove massive amounts of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases from the atmosphere by sequestering.
The Commitment and Approaching Extreme Danger: When the author says “its too late to avoid changing our world, but we still have time, if good policy is implemented, to avoid disaster”, he means that we do not have enough time to undo all the climatic changes that has take place or change the entire climatic scenario but if we think intelligently and smartly, we can still figure out ways in which we can put a check on our lifestyles and activities so that they do not add to the greenhouse gases or trigger disastrous events in the future. In other words, we cannot stop global warming or its consequences but if we make good decisions, we can avoid disaster uptil a great period of time.
Leveling the Mountains: Global warming is already having significant effects on our communities health and upon our climate and unless unless we take immediate action to reduce it, these impacts will continue to intensify, grow more and cause damage to the entire planet including animals and humans. The impacts mainly include changes in precipitation, warming temperatures, rising sea levels, increases in the frequency or intensity of some extreme weather events. These threaten our health by affecting the food we eat, the air we breathe, the water we drink and the weather we experience. Temperature: Warmer temperatures will lead to hotter days and more frequent and longer heat waves leading to increased deaths during the summer months. Long term exposure to these extreme heat conditions can lead to dehydration and heat stroke. Air: Changes in the climate further affects the air that we breathe both indoors and outdoors. Rising temperatures and shifting weather patterns can even worsen air quality, which inturn leads to asthma attacks or other respiratory and cardiovascular health effects. Levels of Ozone: Because warm & stagnant air tends to increase the formation of ozone, the changes in climate is likely to increase the levels of ground-level ozone and this higher concentrations may result in tens to thousands of additional ozone-related illnesses or premature deaths. Water: People can become ill if exposed to contaminated drinking or recreational water. Climatic change increases the risk of illness through increasing temperature, more frequent heavy rains and runoff, and the effects of storms. Heath impacts include diarrhoea, jaundice etc.
The Pack of Jokers: By "tipping points" it means the potentially lightning-fast changes in the environment such as the sudden melting of an ice sheet, forest fires etc. The jokers tip things into a bad state of affairs for humans because these changes are rapid and they take place very fast causing widespread destruction and death af animals and beings.
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