When forecasting the weather, meteorologists rely on a number of concrete predic

Question

When forecasting the weather, meteorologists rely on a number of concrete predictive methods. They can collate quantitative data about the weather’s current state, for example, or they can analyze how the weather today may be similar to typical weather patterns and forecasting models based on their knowledge and experience. While the weather can be unpredictable, weather forecasting attempts to pinpoint identifiable and measurable outcomes in uncertain situations. When attempting to forecast risk, you too will employ defined methods and processes in order to identify, assess, and measure potential risks. Like a meteorologist, you will also use your knowledge and experience in your industry to make educated guesses in some cases. In this week’s Discussion, you will analyze a scenario and distinguish the best ways to identify risk.

Consider an organization where you currently work or one with which you are familiar. Your company has decided that it is time for some corporate rest, relaxation, and family fun. The chief operations officer (COO) wants to conduct a corporate picnic on an upcoming Saturday at a nearby park. All family members are invited to join, including four-legged, furry family members. There will be a baseball tournament, horseshoes, and a pool for swimming. The weather is expected to be in the high 90s. There will be beer, soda, hot dogs, and hamburgers.

In narrative, briefly describe how you would identify and manage risks for this project. Specifically indicate who you would include in the risk processes and when you would conduct the risk activities.

Create a table in your forum post and identify and document in a risk register at least five risks for this project.

Using qualitative analysis, assign probability and impact scores and risk factor scores (probability * impact) for each risk and add these scores to the risk register.

For each risk in your risk register, consider how you will respond to that risk in order to reduce its influence on the picnic, and document that response in your risk register.

Explanation / Answer

In order to identify the risks for this project,it is important to find out the weather forecast for that particular day. The transportation arranged for the picnic and the number of people interested in attending the picnic based on their prior engagements, the swimming pool and drunk staff members who would spoil the event.

I would include the HR person, host of the event, transportation officer and the participants of this event in the risk process and I would conduct the risk activities now itself. I would visit the venue once and find out whether it is safe to have a picnic there and the shade arrangement in case if it rains.

Risks for the project

Risks Probability Impact Risk Factor Score Response to the Risk If it Rains 10% 100% 100 *10 = 1000 Na alternate arrangement of a shady place where people and food can be accomodated. Somebody drown in the pool 10% 50% 500% Life guards should be arranged for emergency Bus broke down 20% 70% 1400% Alternate bus should be arranged Staff do not turn up for picnic 50% 50% 2500% Cmmunication and confirmation from the staff to be taken well in advance Somebody gets injured 25% 25% 625% First aid kid and arrangement would be kept ready

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