Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election

Question

Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town? (voting population over? 100,000). An exit poll of 200 voters finds that 96 voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.51??

Based on your? result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.

The probability that fewerfewer than 96 people voted for the referendum is_________?

(Do we have to use the correction method where instead of 96 we would use 95.5?, also I have noted that mymathlab does not care for inclusive vs noninclusive)

n=200. p=.51. St. Dev= .035

I am doing 95.5/200= .4775

.4775-.51. / .035. =-.93. Z=.1762

Explanation / Answer

as we are approximarting a discrete distribution therefore we are supposed to use correction method

here mean =np=200*0.51=102

and std deviaiton=sqrt(np(1-p))=7.0697

hence probability that fewerfewer than 96 people voted for the referendum

=P(X<96)=P(Z<(95.5-102)/7.0697)=P(Z<-0.92)=0.1788

(from softaware it shoud come 0.1789 ; please revert if any clariifcation required)

Related Questions

Navigate

• Browse (All)
• Browse E
• Subjects

Integrity-first tutoring: explanations and feedback only — we do not complete graded work. Learn more.