Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election

Question

Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town (voting population over 100,000). An exit poll of 200 voters finds that 102 voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.49? Based on your result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.

How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is 0.49?

The probability that More than 102 people voted for the referendum is ________

(Round to four decimal places)

Explanation / Answer

here mean =np =200*0.49=98

and std deviation =(np(1-p))1/2 =7.07

therefore probability that More than 102 people voted for the referendum =P(X>102)=1-P(X<=102)

=1-P(<(102.5-98)/7.07)=1-P(Z<0.6365)=1-0.7378 =0.2622

please revert for any clarification required

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