Page 12 4.3 Bayes\' Rule Bayes theorem is used to revise previously calculated p
ID: 2932256 • Letter: P
Question
Page 12 4.3 Bayes' Rule Bayes theorem is used to revise previously calculated probabilities based on new information From the given diagram ES Ei E2 Example: Three sections each working on a big senior project, it was known that usually from section 1 only 2% of the students does not submit the project on time, from section 2 only 3% of the students does not submit the project on time, and of the students does not from section 3 only 4% submit the project on time. If the three sections were given 50%. 30%, and 20% of the work respectively, find the following: 1. The probability that part of the project will not be submitted on time. 2. If part of the project was not submitted on time, what is the probability that it was from section 2?Explanation / Answer
1)probability that part not submitted on time =P(from section 1 and not submitted on time+from section 2 and not submitted on time+from section 3 and not submitted on time)
=0.5*0.02+0.3*0.03+0.2*0.04=0.027
2)probability part from section 2 given not submitted on time
=P(from section 2 and not submitted on time)/P( not submitted on time) =0.3*0.03/0.027=0.3333
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