Hai guys i do need help i have homework for this question Chance published an ar
ID: 2945340 • Letter: H
Question
Hai guys i do need helpi have homework for this question
Chance published an article on the use of lead bullets as forensic evidence in a federal criminal case
FBI (federal bureau of investigation) will use laboratory method to match the lead in a bullet found at the crime scene with unexpanded lead cartridges found in possession of suspect. The value of this evidence depends on the chance of a "false positive" ( probability that the FBI finds a match given that the lead at the crime scene and the lead in possession of the suspect are actually from different "melts" or sources. To estimate the false positive rate, the FBI collected 1837 bullets that they were confident all came from different melts. The FBI then examined every possible pair of bullets and counted the number of match using its established criteria. According to Chance, the FBI found 693 matches. Use this information to compute chance of a false positive. Is this probability small enough for you to have confidence in the FBI's forensic evidence
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Explanation / Answer
Chance of a false positive = [0.5 x 693/1837 ] / [ 0.5 x 693/1837 + 0.5 x 1144/1837] = 0.37725 This probability is quite large at a figure 37.725% We cant have much faith in the FBI's forensic evidence Cheers !!
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