In an article in Statistics and Computing, “An iterativeMonte Carlo method for n

Question

In an article in Statistics and Computing, “An iterativeMonte Carlo method for nonconjugate Bayesian analysis” (1991,pp. 119–128) Carlin and Gelfand investigated the age (x) andlength ( y) of 27 captured dugongs (sea cows).

b. Estimate the mean length of dugongs at age12 (d).

(a)

(b)

(c)

(d)

x 1 1.5 1.5 1.5 2.5 4 5 5 7 8 8.5 9 9.5 9.5 10 12 12 13 13 14.5 15.5 15.5 16.5 17 22.5 29 31.5 y 1.8 1.85 1.87 1.77 2.02 2.27 2.15 2.26 2.47 2.19 2.26 2.4 2.39 2.41 2.5 2.32 2.32 2.43 2.47 2.56 2.65 2.47 2.64 2.56 2.7 2.72 2.57

Explanation / Answer

There are only a few data points at the far right that reallypush it away from a linear relationship; perhaps the professorintends to discuss this issue, or use this same dataset again whenhe gets to fitting quadratics and compare goodness-of-fit. . Or perhaps it's simply a training exercise to practice doingthe computations. You don't want to talk about how to changegears or bike in inclement weather to somebody who's still gottraining wheels on their bike! I find that shutting up aboutall the complications I know I'm ignoring is one of the hardestthings to do as a professor--but if I don't, the students will getso lost in details that they'll never get the main points.

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