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Let P(A) = .3, P(B c |A) = .1 and P(B|A c ) = .2,use a probability tree to find

ID: 2952608 • Letter: L

Question

Let P(A) = .3, P(Bc|A) = .1 and P(B|Ac) = .2,use a probability tree to find P(A|B) and P(A|Bc).

Explanation / Answer

P(Bc|A) = 0.1-->P(A and B')/P(A)=0.1-->{P(A)-P(Aand B)}/P(A)=0.1 -->{0.3-P(A and B)}/0.3=0.1 -->0.3-P(A and B)=0.1*0.3=0.03 -->P(A and B)=0.3-0.03=0.27 P(B|Ac) = 0.2--> P(A and B)/P(A')=0.2 -->P(A' andB)/{1-P(A)}=0.2 -->{P(B)-P(A and B)}/{1-P(A)}=0.2 -->{P(B)-0.27}/{1-0.3}=0.2 -->P(B)-0.27=0.2*0.7=0.14 -->P(B)=0.14+0.27=0.41 Thus, P(A|B)=P(A and B)/P(B)=0.27/0.41=0.6585366 P(A|Bc)=P(A and B')/P(B')= {P(A)-P(A andB)}/{1-P(B)}=(0.3-0.27)/(1-0.41)=0.05084746

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