The idea of insurance is that we all face risks that are unlikely but carry high
ID: 2957561 • Letter: T
Question
The idea of insurance is that we all face risks that are unlikely but carry high cost, such as a house burning down due to a fire. Thus, we form a group to share the risk. We all pay a small amount, and the insurance company pays a large amount to those few people whose homes are destroyed.
An insurance company looks at the records for millions of homeowners and sees that the mean loss from fire in a year is =$250 per house. The standard deviation of the loss is =$1000. (The distribution of losses is extremely right-skewed: most people have $0 loss, but a few have large losses.) The company plans to sell fire insurance for $250 plus enough to cover its costs and profit.
1. Explain why it would be unwise to sell only 12 policies. Then explain why selling many thousands of such policies is a safe business.
2. If the company sells 10,000 policies, what is the approximate probability that the average loss in a year will be greater than $275?
Explanation / Answer
1. a small number of policies results in a large SD relative to the amount underwritten, allowing for the possibility of a loss 2. normalcdf(275,999999,250,1000/sqrt(10000)) = 0.0062
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