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31) The number of accidents per week at a hazardous intersection varies with mea

ID: 2960171 • Letter: 3

Question

31) The number of accidents per week at a hazardous intersection varies with mean 2.2 and standard deviation 1.4. This distribution takes only whole-number values, so it is certainly not Normal.

(a) Let (x-bar) be the mean number of accidents per week at the intersection during a year (52 weeks). What is the approximate distribution of (x-bar) according to the central limit theorem?

(b) What is the approximate probability that (x-bar) is less than 2?

(c) What is the approximate probability that there are fewer than 100 accidents at the intersection in a year? (Hint: Restate this event in terms of (x-bar).

Explanation / Answer

Given mean=2.2, s=1.4

(a) Let (x-bar) be the mean number of accidents per week at the intersection during a year (52 weeks). What is the approximate distribution of (x-bar) according to the central limit theorem?

xbar ~Normal(mean=2.2, s=1.4/52=0.19)

(b) What is the approximate probability that (x-bar) is less than 2?

P(xbar<2) = P((xbar-mean)/s < (2-2.2)/0.19)

=P(Z<-1.05)

= 0.1468 (check standard normal table)

(c) What is the approximate probability that there are fewer than 100 accidents at the intersection in a year? (Hint: Restate this event in terms of (x-bar).

P(X<100) = P(xbar< 100/52)

=P(xbar<1.92)

=P(Z<(1.92-2.2)/0.19)

=P(Z< -1.47)

=0.0708 (check standard normal table)

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