The Prine Minister of Canada hasindicated that marijuama will be egalized in Can

Question

The Prine Minister of Canada hasindicated that marijuama will be egalized in Canada on ved July 1, 2018. Provinces are expressing concern that this date does not give them enough time to prepare and are asking for a delay. There is a 20% probability that the legalization date will be delayed. If the date is delayed the probability that the Prime Minister will be re-elected is 70% whereas if the date is not delayed his probability of re-election is only 20%. If the Prime Minister is re-elected, what is the probability that the date was delayed? 5333 1600 3000 -4666

Explanation / Answer

P(prime minister is re-elected)=P(date delayed and re-elected+date not delayed and re-elected)

=0.2*0.70+(1-0.2)*0.2=0.3

hence probability of date delayed given prime minister is re-elected

=P(date not delayed and re-elected)/P(prime minister is re-elected) =(1-0.2)*0.2/0.3 =0.5333

option A is corrct

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