The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years: Yea
ID: 3043527 • Letter: T
Question
The following table shows the actual demand observed over the last 11 years:
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
88
99
44
1010
1313
99
1212
1212
1010
1313
88
This exercise contains only parts b, c, and d.
b) Using the 3-year moving average, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to one decimal place).
Year
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Forecast
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
c) Using the 3-year weighted moving average with weights
0.150.15,
0.300.30,
and
0.550.55,
using
0.550.55
for the most recent period, provide the forecast from periods 4 through 12 (round your responses to two decimal places).
Year
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
Forecast
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
nothing
d) Mean absolute deviation for the forecast developed using the 3-year moving average is
2.092.09
and for the 3-year weighted moving average is
2.582.58.
Based on this information, the better forecast is achieved using the
approach.
Year
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
Demand
88
99
44
1010
1313
99
1212
1212
1010
1313
88
Explanation / Answer
b) for 3 year moving average forecast =(last 3 month actual total)/3
hence
c)
weighted moving average forecast =0.55*last month actual+0.3*2 month back actual+0.15*3month back actual
d)
Based on this information, the better forecast is achieved using the 3-year moving average aproach (as its MAD is lower )
(please revert for any clarification)
Year Demand(A) Forecast(F) |A-F| 1 8 2 9 3 4 4 10 7.0 3.0 5 13 7.7 5.3 6 9 9.0 0.0 7 12 10.7 1.3 8 12 11.3 0.7 9 10 11.0 1.0 10 13 11.3 1.7 11 8 11.7 3.7 12 10.3 total 16.7 MAD=total/n 2.08Related Questions
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