Suppose you wanted to predict the trend in marriage age for women into the early

Question

Suppose you wanted to predict the trend in marriage age for women into the early part of this century. Marriage ages in selected years starting in 1955 are listed below. Complete parts a through c. 1955-2005 (5-yr intervals), 20.3. 204, 20.6. 20.9. 21.1. 21.9. 22.8. 23.5. 242. 25 0, 25.7 a) Use the given data to create an appropriate model for predicting the average age at which women will first marry in 2015 Age:D-Dear Round to three decimal places as needed.) b) How much faith do you place in this prediction? Explain. O A. A lot, since all of the regression assumptions and conditions are satisfied, and making a prediction for 2015 is reasonable. O B. Not much, since the data are not truly linear, the residual plot shows a definite trend, and making a prediction for 2015 is an extrapolation. O C. Not much, since the data are not truly linear, the residual plot shows increasing variation, and making a prediction for 2015 is an extrapolation. OD. A little, since all of the regression assumptions and conditions are satisfied, but making a prediction for 2015 is an extrapolation, which may not be reliable. Do you think your model would produce an accurate prediction about your grandchildren, say, 50 years from no? Explain OA. Yes, because, even though the data show some curvature, the trend with be fairly linear over a long enough time span O B. No, because a prediction for a future generation will not be accurate. While the current trend will continue for the current generation, there is no evidence that it will apply to other generations. O C. Yes, because the data show a clear linear trend that should continue. O D. No, because an extrapolation of more than 50 years would be not be reliable. There is no reason to believe the trend from 1955 to 2005 will continue.

Explanation / Answer

Putting the values in the excel we get with the formula of slope and intercept, we get the following regression line. age=-204.6+0.114727 year. age for the year 2015 is age=-204.6+0.114727*2015=20.017 b) not much since data is showing a definite trend and the prediction of age at 2015 is an extrapolation. c)no because the extrapolation of more than 50 years would not be reliable. d)

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