Below is the NAM MOS output for 00Z on March 14, 2013. The low temperature for o
ID: 304774 • Letter: B
Question
Below is the NAM MOS output for 00Z on March 14, 2013. The low temperature for overnight on March 15 is forecast to be __________ and will likely occur _____________.
24F... at 12Z
24F... between 06Z and 09Z.
25F... from 06Z to 09Z.
34F... around 00Z.
34F... between 12Z and 15Z.
You are given the lower portion of a skew-T / log-P diagram at 12Z on March 14, 2013, over Jackson, Mississippi. Assuming that the layer from the ground to 850 mb was well mixed by solar heating (convection) during the day, a reasonable high temperature forecast at Jackson would be...
10 degrees F
18 degrees F
55 degrees F
64 degrees F
85 degrees F
Below is the GFS MOS forecast for Washington National Airport. You have been asked by a pilot friend to notify him of any upcoming periods of time where surface winds are forecast to exceed 20 knots at this airport. Given this MOS forecast what would your advisement be?
No time periods within this time-frame are forecast to exceed the 20 knot criteria.
During the late-afternoon on March 14 the winds are forecast to exceed the 20 knot criteria.
During the evening hours on March 14 the winds are forecast to exceed the 20 knot criteria.
During the morning hours on March 15 the winds are forecast to exceed the 20 knot criteria.
All time periods before 09Z on March 16 are forecast to exceed the 20 knot criteria.
Explanation / Answer
answer-
1. THE LOW TEMPERATURE FOR OVERNIGHT ON MARCH 15 IS FORECAST TO BE AT 25F AND WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM 06Z TO 09Z
2. DURING THE EVENING HOURS ON MARCH 14 THE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED THE 20 KNOTS CRITERIA BECAUSE WSP(WINDSPEED) ON MARCH 14 AT 18:00 HOURS IN THE EVENING IS 20 KNOTS EXCEEDING TO 22 KNOTS AT 21:00 HOURS.
3.BECAUSE MOS IS JUST USING STATISTICS, RATHER THAN DYNAMIC EQUATIONS, SURFACE TEMPERATURE FORECAST ARE ALWAYS HIGHLY SUSPECT.
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