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At the 2018 Winter Olympic Games, figure skater Mirai Nagasu became the first Am

ID: 3048052 • Letter: A

Question

At the 2018 Winter Olympic Games, figure skater Mirai Nagasu became the first American woman to land the triple axel in Olympic competition. The triple axel very sophisticated jump. To prepare for this, she practiced it once every day for a number of a years. After all this practicing, she lands the triple axel with a probability of 0.87. Assume that each attempt is independent. a) In a training session for the Olympics, Mirai will practice the triple axel until she successfully lands it. What 4. is the probability she lands her first successful jump on her 5th attempt? What distribution, parameter(s), and support are you using? What is probability that it takes Mirai at most 4 attempts to land her first successful triple axel? Mirai has just made her fifth attempt and has not yet been successful in landing it. What is the probability it takes Mirai at least 9 attempts to land her first triple axel? Later in the week her coach demands that Mirai should not attempt the triple axel at the Olympics unless Mirai can land it 10 times successfully. What is the probability Mirai can complete this task in 12 attempts? What distribution, parameter(s), and support are you using? What is the expected value and standard deviation of the number of attempts it will take for Mirai to land her 10th successful triple axel? b) c) d) e)

Explanation / Answer

a)
this is gemetric distribution with parameter p = 0.87
P(X= k) = (1-p)^(k-1) *p

here
P(X = 5) = 0.13^4 * 0.87
=0.0002484807

b)
P(X<= 4) = 0.99971439

c)
geometric distribution are memoryless
P(X>= 9 |X>5)
= P(X>=4) = 0.002197

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