This is all the data given in the book for the example problem. #2 should be sol

Question

This is all the data given in the book for the example problem. #2 should be solved using an "N-Period Moving Average" time series forecasting model.

Chapter 14 Forecasting Demand for Services 423 Oak Hollow Medical Evaluation Center CASE 14.1 ak Hollow Medical Evaluation Center is a nonprofit agency requirements, and operating expenses as part of operations management professor for the coming year. The professor has asked you to aid her in his effort to ottering multidisciplinary diagnostic services to study children attract funding. To this end, the director has with disabilities o each patient for physical, psychological, or social problems. assistance in preparing a patient, staffing, and budget forecast Fees for services are based on an ability-to-pay schedule. r developmental delays. The center can test at the local university for The evaluation center exists in a highly competitive envi- this project. Tables 14.8 through 14.11 give you some perti- ronment. Many public-spirited organizations are competing nent information for shrinking funds, and many groups such as private physi- cians, private and school psychologists, and social service organizations also are "competing" for the same patients. As a 1: Given the information available and your knowledge of dif- result of this situation, the center finds itself in an increasingly ferent forecasting techniques, recommend a specific fore- vulnerable financial position. Assignments casting technique for this study. Consider the advantages and disadvantages of your preferred technique, and identify what additional information, if next year. Mr. Abel, the director of the center, is becoming increas- any, Mr. Abel would need. ingly concerned with the center's ability to attract adequate and serve community needs. Mr. Abel now must 2 Develop forecasts for patient, staffing, and budget levels for develop an accurate estimate of the future patient load, staffing

Explanation / Answer

1- After carefully analysing the case of the hospital, I will suggest for time series method of forecasting. There are different techniques of forecasting under time series method but for this particular situation I will suggest exponential smoothing. Exponential smoothing takes into consideration the past demand and historical numbers and provide weight to them according to relevance. In healthcare sector uncertainty is much more and it is provided in this case also. Double exponential smoothing can be better help the manager to forecast future numbers because it takes into account the possibility of a series exhibiting some form of trend. It provides more accurate forecast and it gives more significance to recent observations. Disadvantage of this technique is that it produces forecast which lag behind the actual trend because lag  is a side effect of the smoothing process.The other disadvantage is that it cannot handle the trend well. To do exponential smoothing the forecasted value of past number needed.

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