A salesman normally makes a sale (closes) on 60% of his presentations. Assuming

Question

A salesman normally makes a sale (closes) on 60% of his presentations. Assuming the presentations are independent, find the probability of each of the following.

a) He fails to close for the first time on his fourth attempt.

b) He closes his first presentation on his third attempt.

c) The first presentation he closes will be on his second attempt.

d) The first presentation he closes will be on one of his first three attempts.

a) The probability he fails to close for the first time on his fourth attempt is

Explanation / Answer

a) P(close on first 3 attempts, fail to close on 4th attempt)

= (0.60)^3 (0.40) = 0.0864

b) P(fail to close on first 2 attempts, close on 3rd attempt)

= (0.40)^2 (0.60) = 0.096

c) P(fail to close on 1st attempt, close on 2nd attempt)

= (0.40)(0.60) = 0.24

d) P(close on at least 1 of first 3 attempts)

= 1 - P(fail to close on first 3 attempts)

= 1 - (0.40)^3

= 0.936

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