Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election
ID: 3065211 • Letter: E
Question
Exit polling is a popular technique used to determine the outcome of an election prior to results being tallied. Suppose a referendum to increase funding for education is on the ballot in a large town (voting population over 100,000). An exit poll of
500
voters finds that
255
voted for the referendum. How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is
0.49?
Based on your result, comment on the dangers of using exit polling to call elections.
How likely are the results of your sample if the population proportion of voters in the town in favor of the referendum is
0.49?
The probability that
moremore
than
255
people voted for the referendum is_____
Explanation / Answer
here mean number who voted for referendum =np =500*0.49 =245
std deviaiton =(np(1-p))1/2 =11.178
as np>10 and n(1-p) >10 therefore we can apply normal approximation of binomial distribution
probability that
more than 255 people voted for the referendum is:
for normal distribution z score =(X-)/ here mean= = 245 std deviation == 11.178Related Questions
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