Conditional Probability of Creative Ideas 0.60 0.10 0.30 0.60 0.30 0.10 0.20 0.5

Question

Conditional Probability of Creative Ideas 0.60 0.10 0.30 0.60 0.30 0.10 0.20 0.50 0.30 State of the World Economy Good Probability of Economic State 0.30 Performance of Creative Ideas Good Neutral Poor Good Neutral Poor Good Neutral Poor Neutral 0.20 Poor 0.50 lic XC ata File a. What is the probability that the performance of the world economy will be neutral and that of creative ideas will be poor? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Probability b. What is the probability that the performance of Creative Ideas will be poor? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.) Probability c. The performance of Creative ldeas was poor. What is the probability that the performance of the world economy had also been poor? (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Explanation / Answer

a)Probability=P(world economy good)*P(creative ideas poor|world economy good)=0.3*0.3=0.09

b)

P(creative ideas poor)=P(world economy good)*P(creative ideas poor|world economy good)+P(world economy neutral)*P(creative ideas poor|world economy neutral)+P(world economy poor)*P(creative ideas poor|world economy poor)

=0.3*0.3+0.2*0.1+0.5*0.3=0.26

c)

P(world economy poor|Creative ideas poor)

=0.5*0.3/0.26=0.58

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