This is a homework question and I am using a MAC struggling because It does ot a

Question

This is a homework question and I am using a MAC struggling because It does ot allow for the Data anaylsis plug in for excel.

Using the data below Use the MAD MSE and MAPe as guidance find the best number of moving average periods and the best smoothing constant for expodential smoothing ?

Ohio Prison Population Data Male Male Female Female Total Total Year Intake Population Intake Population Intake Population 1972 4677 8846 236 275 4913 9121 1973 4635 8049 253 271 4888 8320 1974 5538 7449 367 268 5905 7717 1975 7014 8978 442 348 7456 9326 1976 6859 10985 493 436 7352 11421 1977 6317 12086 627 542 6944 12628 1978 5993 12269 558 577 6551 12846 1979 6849 12768 583 582 7432 13350 1980 7698 12762 631 598 8329 13360 1981 9046 12557 792 581 9838 13138 1982 9530 14071 919 725 10449 14796 1983 9293 16272 917 875 10210 17147 1984 8855 16795 780 971 9635 17766 1985 9132 17382 868 969 10000 18351 1986 9436 19416 1002 1123 10438 20539 1987 9871 20981 1071 1194 10942 22175 1988 11170 22659 1296 1284 12466 23943 1989 14673 24373 1833 1476 16506 25849 1990 15423 28346 1986 1954 17409 30300 1991 17450 29605 2196 1896 19646 31501 1992 18209 33189 2385 2257 20594 35446 1993 17460 35627 2374 2364 19834 37991 1994 16546 37715 2346 2538 19198 40253 1995 17395 39065 2520 2544 19915 41609 1996 16753 41595 2431 2743 19184 44338 1997 15589 43183 2011 2779 17600 45962 1998 16076 44997 2177 2811 18253 47808 1999 16122 45285 2203 2886 18325 48171 2000 17334 43813 2387 2806 19721 46619

Explanation / Answer

The actual value for exponential smoothing constant turns out to be greater than one in each case to minimise MAPE, MSE and MAD.

Thus, the value of 1 gives the best result in each case.

As far as moving averages are concerned, the best way top find out is to take different MA periods and check them graphically. That can be done via excel and does not require data analysis plugin.

See this video if you need help.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3gNQYQIkp9g

Hope this helps.

MAPE MSE MAD 0 0 0 Alpha -values 9.627404 641601 801 Male population 1 7.813917 363609 603 Female population 1 17.25284 2588881 1609 Total 1 18.3434 4389025 2095 9.558125 1456849 1207 1.697026 47524 218 3.775281 254016 504 0.07485 100 10 1.689755 49284 222 11.20573 2748964 1658 13.71085 5527201 2351 3.484183 383161 619 3.187837 342225 585 10.6529 4787344 2188 7.377678 2676496 1636 7.384204 3125824 1768 Males Females Total 7.373593 3632836 1906 MAPE 1 1 1 14.68977 19811401 4451 MSE 1 1 1 3.812577 1442401 1201 MAD 1 1 1 11.12961 15563025 3945 6.698955 6477025 2545 5.619457 5116644 2262 3.25891 1838736 1356 6.154991 7447441 2729 3.533354 2637376 1624 3.861278 3407716 1846 0.753565 131769 363 3.329115 2408704 1552 Average 6.794868 3424041 1512.207

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